Down Go the Presidents

America’s Leadership Vacuum is a Clear and Present Danger

I have suggested for some time that America will not have a normal election cycle. While such a view is ascendent in some circles already I believe we are headed for a presidential leadership vacuum and a potential constitutional crisis before Christmas.

There will most assuredly be election day shenanigans like voter fraud, delayed results, media manipulation, or other untoward interference to sabotage Donald Trump. However, of deeper concern is the immediate executive crisis at the top of the US government already evident. Even if Trump wins the election, a fraught three -month road stands between today and January 20^th 2025 when the next POTUS assumes power.

America’s leadership is perhaps more fragile than it has been since the Civil War.

America’s executive leadership is perhaps more fragile today than it has been since the Civil War. Walt Whitman described President James Buchanan’s position accordingly: “All you are doing and saying is to America dangled mirages.” Buchanan, much like America’s leadership cadre in DC-NYC, was completely out-of-touch with the febrile anti-slavery movement and surging violence tearing the nation apart.

Today’s top leadership is significantly more estranged from the rapid deterioration of America than even Buchanan was before the Civil War. No serious concern has been paid to the anarchic immigration crisis, faltering standards of living, fentanyl addiction crisis, narco-traffic spreading across the country, inner-city crime and lawlessness, never mind two overseas wars that threaten nuclear war.

The ineptitude of Biden-Harris opens the door to a legitimate breakdown of authority.

America’s presidential leadership is flailing and fragile. It is flailing because of the ambiguity regarding who is currently running the US Government (USG). It is fragile because the cognitive impairment of President Biden and the egregious ineptitude of Vice President Kamala Harris open the door to a legitimate breakdown of authority if any of the crises below strike with force.

1.     US War with Iran

2.     US War with Russia

3.     USG fiscal crisis

4.     Other: assassination, banking, industrial accidents, terrorism etc.

Any of these crises or perhaps a combination will almost certainly stress-test the Biden-Harris duo before January 2025 and I am betting they will disastrously fail the test.

It could be argued that the United States has been in a power vacuum since President Biden was ousted from seeking reelection in July by his own party. Strangely, Biden rushed to appoint Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor and Democratic nominee while simultaneously committing to finish his term as President of the United States (POTUS).

Since then the decline in presidential leadership has been obvious to even mainstream outlets like Politico:

“the limits of Biden’s waning influence over events in the Middle East and an acknowledgment that he may be unable to stop what his administration has spent a year trying to prevent: regional war.”

Of course, the limits of Biden’s authority raises serious questions about the US Government’s (USG) functionality in times of extreme duress:

• First, no one knows who is really making decisions in the White House.

• Second, since Biden withdrew (forcibly or otherwise) from seeking re-election, rumors persist that he may resign before the election.

• Third, regardless of media spin, VP Harris appears noticeably incapable of steering America through a crisis; her media appearances are carefully scripted, she has difficulty presenting herself clearly, and she does not have commanding presence to put it mildly.

• Four, Congress is extremely divided, ideologically and functionally, which means that if the 25^th amendment is triggered (physical incapacitation) or the 20^th amendment (line of succession) it could bog things down based on legal procedure alone.

It is important to reference precedent. We could experience a constitutional crisis at the top unseen since Nixon’s resignation when the 25^th Amendment was triggered. Whenever a president steps down, his successor by law is the Vice President according to the 25^th amendment. However, when the Vice President is sworn in to become President, he then must select a Vice President who must be approved by Congress. After Gerald Ford became President in 1974, he then appointed Senator Nelson Rockefeller who was approved four months later to be his Vice President.

The timeline is very important. The year before Nixon resigned, he replaced Vice President Spiro Agnew who was forced to step down for tax evasion. He was quickly replaced by Congressman Gerald Ford by a House vote of 92-3. Even in a far more unified and stable country the process still took two months. Agnew resigned October 10 and Ford was sworn in on December 6 of 1973. 

What would a similar succession look like today? First, if Biden resigns as president before the election, which looks more likely by the day, it will mean President Kamala Harris presides alone without a Vice President as a successor until after the election is resolved at a minimum, and likely longer due to the slowness and rancor of the Congressional approval process. Second, if Harris resigned that would trigger the 20^th Amendment, which outlines the line of succession after the Vice President.

The line of succession leads back to Congress. According to 20^th Amendment, the Speaker of the House followed by the Senate Pro Tempore are the third and forth in line to be POTUS, currently Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson followed by Senior Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Such a scenario seems improbable but could very definitely happen and in light speed if the Biden-Harris team makes a serious misstep and the nation loses confidence in them. This assumes, of course, things fall apart before Christmas.

Leadership instability occurs more often than people remember in American history. Assassination attempts, deaths, and other bizarre things happen routinely to presidents. President William McKinley was assassinated in 1901 and his successor Teddy Roosevelt was nearly killed a decade later in 1912. There was an assassination attempt on FDR 17 days before his inauguration, JFK was infamously killed in 1963, Nixon resigned in 1974, and Reagan was shot in 1982. Both Bill Clinton and Donald Trump were impeached by opposition parties.

We have already experienced two assassination attempts this year and an aging President forced to dropout of the Presidential race. Meanwhile, wars rage overseas, tensions are feverish domestically, and the vast majority of Americans are struggling with inflation, job insecurity, and overwhelming debt. Add to that the major hurricanes devastating America’s coastal states this Fall.

How much longer before something critical breaks DC’s terrible executive leadership completely? Storm clouds are gathering so it won’t be long, and likely before the next president-elect is sworn in.

Welcome to the End of Cycle.

Stay liquid, stay safe.