Macron Teeters and a Franco-Volcano Smokes

De Gaulle Broke Bretton Woods, France will Break EU

Good Morning,

The rate of change has certainly accelerated since 2020 but perhaps no country is more essential to the End-of-Cycle theatrics unfolding in Europe than France. Some key points to contextualize the explosive situation there and in Europe:

While France is a black box to Americans for reasons of language and culture, it remains the linchpin of the EU. Germany may be Europe's most powerful nation but France has been the forerunner of change in Europe since Louis XIV, and remains so today. Where France goes Europe follows.

Macron, like Rishi Sunak-UK and Olaf Scholz-DE, is teetering as recession worsens, bond markets wobble, and Russian victory in Ukraine becomes harder to conceal. Perhaps more than anything, these leaders represent the utter failure of the EU, an elitist project that never had strong grass roots support or enthusiasm despite claims to the contrary.

A Franco-German pact dating back to the Treaty of Rome (1957) began the European Community, culminating in the EU. However, submitting to a supranational body that would subsume national sovereignty was never an arrangement that suited France or Germany, never mind the rest of Europe.

What followed has been a successive entrenchment of cancerous bureaucracies who have strangled European democracy and national self-determination with acts from Schengen to the Paris Agreement and the euro. All were imposed by delusional Eurocrats who have systematically enfeebled Europe beyond recognition.

Fortunately, there is a new awakening emerging across the continent from the grass roots level. New opposition parties are gaining momentum from Austria (Freedom Party) to Deutschland (AfD) to the Netherlands (Party of Freedom) to Sweden (Swedish Democrats) , to Poland (Konfederacja), to Hungary (Fadez), to Italy (Brothers of Italy led by Giorgi Meloni), and still more.

What unifies these groups is a desire to dismantle the EU. However, what has been missing is Franco leadership. Perhaps no country has been more skeptical if not outright hostile to the EU (and NATO) than France, a legacy of Charles De Gaulle. While that mentality remains strong in the average Frenchmen it is completely errant from French government and major political parties.

That is changing. Macron has lost the confidence of the French people and his efforts to reinvigorate the EU project have categorically failed. As several journalists and politicians said to me during my trips to Paris in '22 and '23 "France is a volcano."

If, and more likely when Macron resigns or is removed, a FREXIT will follow and a flurry of countries will follow, including Germany, in which resides the financial-economic power the EU depends upon.

A Franco-volcano is erupting and the continent will rattle accordingly. De Gaulle broke Bretton Woods, now France will break the EU.

Stay liquid, stay alert.