Power Vacuum
As the Gerontocracy falls a power vacuum is forming.
It has been a disastrous summer for the Gerontocracy and the hits just keep coming. A self-induced purging of the old guard is unfolding before our eyes.
Less than a month since a disastrous debate Joe Biden has been forced to step down as the presumptive DNC presidential nominee. He acknowledged so in a statement released this past Sunday saying “I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down.” While the precise circumstances behind Biden’s decision are not clear yet the larger story is the coming instability in the United States regardless of who is elected president this fall.
Most will proclaim Biden’s withdrawal a victory for Donald Trump but I would not assume so. A mere week ago Donald Trump was nearly killed and while the incident sparked the usual virtue signaling from politicians, activists, and commentators alike the empty rhetoric won’t last the month. Escalation is the theme of the summer and that will continue into the fall, which means more shocks are inbound even if he is elected (see video above).
An equally troubling time bomb is ticking across the Atlantic. Just two weeks ago UK Prime Minister (PM) Rishi Sunak resigned in humiliating fashion after a once in a generation electoral shellacking, leaving in his place Labor leader Keir Starmer, a rookie PM of unsure footing on the world stage.
A few weeks before that establishment parties across Europe lost significant seats to surging right wing parties in June’s Parliamentary elections. What’s left in its wake are dysfunctional coalition governments across the EU, most pressingly in Germany and France.
Even deeper divisions are festering at the street level between massive immigrant populations and native Europeans.
Even deeper divisions are festering at the street level between massive immigrant populations and native Europeans where tensions are building as the economy worsens and fiscal resources become more and more stretched.
In a word the Western world is leaderless. The leadership disarray in Europe has not been this bad since perhaps the Treaty of Versailles at the end of World War I, and the grinding down process has only just begun.
How much longer before President Emmanuel Macron is pushed out in France? How much longer before the shaky Scholz coalition fractures in Germany? I say not much longer.
It will be a period of sustained and ferocious disorder in which legacy parties collapse, governments default, and even assassinations may become the norm.
What comes next is a power vacuum. To be clear, I am referring to an unstable environment in which presidents, prime ministers, and chancellors are consistently wavering, turning over, and under overwhelming pressure as are the governments they lead. It will be a period of sustained and ferocious disorder in which legacy parties collapse, governments default, and even assassinations may become the norm.
President Biden’s exit from the campaign opens the floodgates of concerns about America’s interim leadership. Can a fragile President whose cognitive free fall lost the confidence of his own party still serve as the steady hand who will steer America through to January 2025? I think not. If not Biden, can Kamala Harris do so? I think not.
President Biden’s uncertain status is consequential for the world as well. What becomes of the War in Ukraine? What about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and escalation against Hezbollah? What about tensions with China? What happens if there is a financial black swan? What then?
A more basic question might be who can lead any of these messy Western nations under current conditions. I think the answer is no one for the time being. As I said in a recent interview (see below), America and Europe desperately need a new leadership cadre.
We have been headed down a dark alley for a long time and now we are beginning to hear ruffling from the shadows and menacing silhouettes flickering against the moon light. A power vacuum and the political abyss that comes with it lay ahead. The only way out is through so buckle up. Welcome to the End of Cycle.
Stay liquid, stay alert.