Have you looked into or heard about Tom Luongo's theory regarding the Libor and Sofr, city of London? It's interesting and is tangentially related to your ideas.
Yes - I do not share his views. There is little day light between Western elites (Globalists and bankers) on both sides of the Atlantic. If Europe descends into financial chaos America will too, and visa versa. The legacy financial-political system is crashing full stop and DT cannot save it nor should it be saved. What is happening at the street level in the West is far bigger than Luongo's descriptors. Nationalism is rising and a reset is coming.
Luongo is a smart guy but he is a financial analyst. The decisive forces at play transcend finance. Nationalism cannot be controlled and its power is derived from intangible, metaphysical forces, which is why the elites fear it and the empiricists dismiss it.
I agree in principle. However, I think the debt default is unlikely. Rather, Lagarde and the ecb criminals will destroy the bond market (i.e. buy everything) and thrash the euro. Simply because it allows to kick the can down the road for a bit longer. Once that is done, the default will follow but be irrelevant, because all debt is owned by central banks anyway. You can see this in the EUR/USD and yield spreads already. There is no market for european bonds anymore, it is all managed. My bet is the Euro will be gone in the next five years
2 words: Feedback loop. Any bailout (akin to Fed cutting rates which is spiking rates higher the US) will trigger the default spiral. Once market forces take over bailouts accelerate bankruptcies. Equally, CBDC locks everyone into the banking system so everyone then exits via capital flight. Everything described is well documented. (See Reinhart / Rogoff work)
Western governments are also hollowed out: they lack the paramilitary forces to control their populations. Governments will fall. Danger ahead for legacy system and caretaker elites.
So the government lacks the power to get all of us? I’m glad to hear that. But this whole financial situation is going to be very scary. When you say stay liquid is a savings account OK?
It’s a good start. Try to maintain flexibility with your cash as much as possible so avoid illiquid assets like cars and homes. Also be wary of centralized systems like big banks, stocks and commercial real estate. Being aware and preparing mentally is half the battle. Good luck.
Left and Right are Rohrschach blots. The politics of the future will be concrete, direct and won't need abstract, universal, ideas to justify itself. What is good for the tribe speaks for itself. Coffee shop politics now online, but is less relevant than ever. 'Ideas' from the age of Wilson cannot survive incorporation into the mood swings of Karen and the soy-boys: refutation by way of hormonal debility.
The answer to debt 💸 for America and the Dollar is to finish the logic of the Petrodollar only half done and go to energy money. Make energy money.
The 10kWh dollar.
This restores value to money and allows the bending down of the energy cost curve that is the real carnivore of inflation and allows all to generate their way out of debt.
I’m American and speaking only of my own country, not to others.
I fear the 10KWH will be bundled and sold on the derivatives markets.
Have a question. I was reading one of the Russian stackers earlier. He claims the main force of HTS was 5,000 Turkish special forces. Any truth in his claim?
A massive reduction and suppression of labor and productive, creative classes can when lifted cause an enormous increase in GDP . Ask China !
Because that’s the Chinese miracle of growth from the 90s through 2010s. Mind you 70 million Chinese died of starvation or murder and the rest enslaved and terrified, but a relative GDP Index fund would rise greatly- a miracle!! - relative to that low point. Perhaps that’s Globalisms plan: GDP index funds, you just have to get the baseline price down. Buy low, sell high !
The Globalists don't care about costs. Buy high, buy low, it's the same thing. When your bank has been designated TooBigToFail you get a bail-out, the rest of us "Let them eat cake".
This article is excellent. Having lived here in France, I unfortunately agree with main thesis that the tension in the country and society is high, right under surface and bound to explode. I may disagree with analysis of the root causes:
Regarding budget, bonds and fiscal policy: 100% yes. Regarding immigrants and diverging interest of EU and France: while these issues do exist, they are more visible from outside than inside and overrepresented in press. People will (probably) not revolt because of that. Instead, I would add the following catastrophic characteristics of the society: detachment of social/political discourse from reality (especially the left), chronic pacifism that leads to impotence in the era of national emergency, the religion of social benefits (system soon to collapse), and degenerated work culture : people reject the capitalist ethos and systematically work less and less and that has become the norm. All that, together with the ticking bomb of country potentially going to default (of which no one speaks) is an alarming mix. Yes, something is going to happen here - I am however in no position to predict what and when.
“delusions of continuity” and normalcy bias are the only things keeping the normies asleep enough to not be hanging their “representatives” from lamp poles.
Txs s lot for this sum up, EU needs to die as soon as possible.
But we all should push people to shut it down and it's sad we lost a great chance to give a strong signal last June/July for EU Elections. It should have been a campaign to not vote as I was hoping to be part of.
Have you looked into or heard about Tom Luongo's theory regarding the Libor and Sofr, city of London? It's interesting and is tangentially related to your ideas.
Great piece, good read. Thanks.
Yes - I do not share his views. There is little day light between Western elites (Globalists and bankers) on both sides of the Atlantic. If Europe descends into financial chaos America will too, and visa versa. The legacy financial-political system is crashing full stop and DT cannot save it nor should it be saved. What is happening at the street level in the West is far bigger than Luongo's descriptors. Nationalism is rising and a reset is coming.
Thank you. I agree. His theory leaves some pretty big questions with no answers but is interesting in some narrow aspects.
Luongo is a smart guy but he is a financial analyst. The decisive forces at play transcend finance. Nationalism cannot be controlled and its power is derived from intangible, metaphysical forces, which is why the elites fear it and the empiricists dismiss it.
Very good point.
I agree in principle. However, I think the debt default is unlikely. Rather, Lagarde and the ecb criminals will destroy the bond market (i.e. buy everything) and thrash the euro. Simply because it allows to kick the can down the road for a bit longer. Once that is done, the default will follow but be irrelevant, because all debt is owned by central banks anyway. You can see this in the EUR/USD and yield spreads already. There is no market for european bonds anymore, it is all managed. My bet is the Euro will be gone in the next five years
2 words: Feedback loop. Any bailout (akin to Fed cutting rates which is spiking rates higher the US) will trigger the default spiral. Once market forces take over bailouts accelerate bankruptcies. Equally, CBDC locks everyone into the banking system so everyone then exits via capital flight. Everything described is well documented. (See Reinhart / Rogoff work)
Western governments are also hollowed out: they lack the paramilitary forces to control their populations. Governments will fall. Danger ahead for legacy system and caretaker elites.
So the government lacks the power to get all of us? I’m glad to hear that. But this whole financial situation is going to be very scary. When you say stay liquid is a savings account OK?
It’s a good start. Try to maintain flexibility with your cash as much as possible so avoid illiquid assets like cars and homes. Also be wary of centralized systems like big banks, stocks and commercial real estate. Being aware and preparing mentally is half the battle. Good luck.
Thank you!
I was thinking of stocking my wine collection - something to comfort us in the denouement.
Buy silver bullion. Grams, ounces, pounds, kilos, whatever you can buy and hold. Silver is undervalued,
gold is overvalued. Unless you are really rich stay away from AU.
Thank you!
Sir is there not a point of no road, can or kicks remaining?
Another interesting, well written Substack.
I have held the view for about a decade that the EU is a Global Fascism alpha test.
Thank goodness Left and Right are gone. Let’s switch to Up 🆙 or Down 👎🏻. Less relatively.
We need clarity.
Left and Right are Rohrschach blots. The politics of the future will be concrete, direct and won't need abstract, universal, ideas to justify itself. What is good for the tribe speaks for itself. Coffee shop politics now online, but is less relevant than ever. 'Ideas' from the age of Wilson cannot survive incorporation into the mood swings of Karen and the soy-boys: refutation by way of hormonal debility.
The answer to debt 💸 for America and the Dollar is to finish the logic of the Petrodollar only half done and go to energy money. Make energy money.
The 10kWh dollar.
This restores value to money and allows the bending down of the energy cost curve that is the real carnivore of inflation and allows all to generate their way out of debt.
I’m American and speaking only of my own country, not to others.
HNY
There have been suggestions that new currencies tied to the value of natural resources are the way to go.
This might become the basis for US/Russian detente.
I fear the 10KWH will be bundled and sold on the derivatives markets.
Have a question. I was reading one of the Russian stackers earlier. He claims the main force of HTS was 5,000 Turkish special forces. Any truth in his claim?
Interesting speculation, any evidence?
This would be something real as opposed to Notional derivatives.
I have no idea about HTS and RU SF. It would be strange because the Russians bombed HTS at the start and just before.
I dont know enough about France to comments but this is well written and interesting!
A massive reduction and suppression of labor and productive, creative classes can when lifted cause an enormous increase in GDP . Ask China !
Because that’s the Chinese miracle of growth from the 90s through 2010s. Mind you 70 million Chinese died of starvation or murder and the rest enslaved and terrified, but a relative GDP Index fund would rise greatly- a miracle!! - relative to that low point. Perhaps that’s Globalisms plan: GDP index funds, you just have to get the baseline price down. Buy low, sell high !
The Globalists don't care about costs. Buy high, buy low, it's the same thing. When your bank has been designated TooBigToFail you get a bail-out, the rest of us "Let them eat cake".
This article is excellent. Having lived here in France, I unfortunately agree with main thesis that the tension in the country and society is high, right under surface and bound to explode. I may disagree with analysis of the root causes:
Regarding budget, bonds and fiscal policy: 100% yes. Regarding immigrants and diverging interest of EU and France: while these issues do exist, they are more visible from outside than inside and overrepresented in press. People will (probably) not revolt because of that. Instead, I would add the following catastrophic characteristics of the society: detachment of social/political discourse from reality (especially the left), chronic pacifism that leads to impotence in the era of national emergency, the religion of social benefits (system soon to collapse), and degenerated work culture : people reject the capitalist ethos and systematically work less and less and that has become the norm. All that, together with the ticking bomb of country potentially going to default (of which no one speaks) is an alarming mix. Yes, something is going to happen here - I am however in no position to predict what and when.
“delusions of continuity” and normalcy bias are the only things keeping the normies asleep enough to not be hanging their “representatives” from lamp poles.
But wait! Isn’t it a jubilee year???? Sheesh.
Excellent. Thank you for the hard work it must have taken to produce your essay.
Let's hope so, sooner than later.
The whole world is broke and living off borrowed money. France would be my choice to live in this miserable world with my family. PARIS ❤️
Very well written Sir.And done without mentioning the Baal in the china cabinet 🙊🙉🙈
Txs s lot for this sum up, EU needs to die as soon as possible.
But we all should push people to shut it down and it's sad we lost a great chance to give a strong signal last June/July for EU Elections. It should have been a campaign to not vote as I was hoping to be part of.
Too many write and read, but do not act!
Do you think Bitcoin will be a safe harbour during any collapse? Or will the collapse bring that crashing down too?